the difficult choice of an election-date

The INLA have obliged Mr Brown by allegedly decommissioning their arms soon after the late-night policing-agreement between the big parties. Parliamentarians’ expenses are to some extent kicked into touch with the charging of three MPs and one peer. Brown can now try to shift the public gaze on to Ashcroft and Tory funding.
After £200bn spent on money-printing he has achieved the (admittedly only 0.1%) growth he wanted, while the Tories are in a mess on policy and loath to commit on the detail or extent of cuts. Only mavericks like Mr Redwood are allowed to point out that just 1m of the 6m state-jobs are front-line; only he can suggest that, rather than fostering recovery, government-spending is preventing it and making an Icelandic crash more likely by the day.
Mr Brown must know in his heart that he will have a job getting an absolute majority, even though the electoral arithmetic is biased in his direction. He will be considering damage-limitation, perhaps the possibility of another Lib-Lab pact to hold-on to Downing-street. Brown will have kicked himself for not going to the country early in his premiership. He could then have claimed that, unlike Callaghan and Major, he would immediately seek a mandate - no coat-tails prime minister he. He must now wonder if it’s worth risking the opprobrium of wasting millions (more) of public money by having a large part of the country go to the polls twice in two months.
Although Ulster may be neutralised, at any moment Iraq, Iran or Afghanistan could turn nasty. Transport-workers and civil servants threaten and carry-out strikes. Worse, Greece, Spain and Portugal could drag not just the eurozone but the whole EU into a bigger debt-crisis. Iceland was quarantined because it wasn’t in the union let alone the single currency; it could crash and burn without setting light to the rest of Europe. The club-Med countries aren’t insulated in that way. Britain, though benefitting from its free-floating pound, and maybe not as bad as the so-called pigs, has the worst housekeeping of the G7. Our AAA remains at risk, particularly now the money-presses have stopped rolling.
In other words, Gordon’s tiny bubble could quickly burst, maybe when one international financier tips the wink to the market and decides the UK’s time for asset-stripping has come. A market-crash on the eve of an election could undo any psephological advantage that Labour has, giving Cameron the landslide he doesn’t deserve.
In Downing-street this evening, the prime minister must peer at his tea-leaves, wondering if the soggy configuration augurs better for April or May.






